Tag: risks

Weekly_38/2022

Because of many experiences and observations in the last few years, I have deepened my feelings about risk. There are too many “sighs” for us to learn from (e.g., LTCM is a very strong argument). Indeed, there are often many commonalities in mistakes that are hard to understand without experience.

1. macro, risk perception

Risk perception system, grasp the big and let go of the small. The most critical thing is still a deep understanding of extreme risks. Too many defeats are attributed to this.

• Nowadays, the frequency of extreme Stan is becoming more and more intensive and influential.
• To move forward in a system of uncertainty with an “attack” posture is insensitive and lacking in reverence. This includes thinking that you are strategically “good enough” to step on the right rhythm, especially when you cannot accept the consequences of doing the opposite, which is the same as gambling (e.g., Haidilao bet on the wrong end of the epidemic, stepping on the wrong rhythm to expand and leverage, resulting in huge strategic mistakes and losses).
• From a macro perspective, human development is said to spiral upward, but after adjusting the coordinate system, this upward spiral contains huge disorderly fluctuations and cyclical evolution. Cognitive and operational systems must include these basic FACTS.

2. micro, individual choices in risk

After a lot of observations, it is still believed that the quality of decisions is still greatly underestimated. Or rather, the concepts of fast and slow are misunderstood.

• Deep understanding of opportunity cost. There are millions of things that can be done, and tens of thousands of opportunities, but there is only one thing that can be done at the moment that matters most, making the highest quality choices possible
• The outside world is always mixed and chaotic, so we must focus on the opportunities after we have clarified them, and focus on the long term values.
• Rethink about FAST and SLOW: slow is fast, it is a strategy and tactic. In strategy and tactics, slow is fast; in action, be fast

It is always easy to talk about important things, such as SLOW IS FAST, which is often hung up by many people. And then, for example, reverence, openness, and forgiveness. But what about the actual actions？ Therefore, it is a cautionary tale and an eternal practice process. So, always be open-minded and stay foolish.

It is said that you can not really learn only in books. Although learning from other people’s mistakes is one of the low-cost ways to learn, many things really need to be done to gain insight. No breakage, no establishment. DO-LEARN-DO-LEARN is a quality learning model.

Weekly_38/2022

因为近几年诸多经历和观察，对风险这件事的感触又加深了一些。太多“叹息”供我们学习（e.g. LTCM是一个很强有力的论据）。确实，错误中常常很多共性，而不经历是很难深刻理解的。

1. 宏观，风险认知

风险认知体系，抓大放小。最关键的无非还是深刻认知极端风险。太多败北归于此。

• 当下，极端斯坦出现的频率越来越密集，影响力越来越大
• 以“攻击”的姿态在不确定性的系统中前行，是不自量力，缺乏敬畏。包括认为自己战略上“足以“踩准节奏，特别是在不能接受反之而行的后果时，与赌无异（e.g. 海底捞赌错疫情结束，踩错节奏大肆扩张加杠杆，造成巨大的战略失误和亏损）
• 宏观视角，人类的发展讲是螺旋上升的，调整坐标系后，这种上升中包含巨大的无序波动和周期演化。认知和行动体系务必囊括这类基本FACTS

2 . 微观，风险中的个人选择

大量的观察后仍认为，决策质量依旧被大大低估了。又或者说，快和慢被理解偏误。

• 深刻理解机会成本。能做的事情有千万，机会有数万，但当下能做的仅有一件最重要的事，尽可能做高质量的选择
• 外部永远是纷杂的、混乱的，明确了机会后定要专注，以生命阶段维度的专注
• 关于快慢的再思考：慢就是快，是一种战略和战术；战略和战术上，慢就是快；行动上，要快

最重要的谈论起来总是很简单，比如slow is fast，常常被很多人挂在嘴边。再比如，敬畏、开放、包容。但事实人们的实际行动呢？因此，是警言，也是永恒的修炼过程。因此，永远开放，保持敬畏。

所谓纸上得来终觉浅。虽说用别人的错误学习是低成本的习得方式之一，但很多事情，确实需躬行方得感悟。不破不立。有破才有立。DO-LEARN-DO-LEARN才是优质的习得模式。